Profiling Covid-19 patients with respect to level of severity: an integrated statistical approach.

A full understanding of the characteristics of Covid-19 patients with a better chance of experiencing poor vital outcomes is critical for implementing accurate and precise treatments. In this paper, two different advanced data-driven statistical approaches along with standard statistical methods have been implemented to identify groups of patients most at-risk for death or severity of respiratory distress. First, the tree-based analysis allowed to identify profiles of patients with different risk of in-hospital death (by Survival Tree-ST analysis) and severity of respiratory distress (by Classification and Regression Tree-CART analysis), and to unravel the role on risk stratification of highly dependent covariates (i.e., demographic characteristics, admission values and comorbidities). The ST analysis identified as the most at-risk group for in-hospital death the patients with age > 65 years, creatinine [Formula: see text] 1.2 mg/dL, CRP [Formula: see text] 25 mg/L and anti-hypertensive treatment. Based on the CART analysis, the subgroups most at-risk of severity of respiratory distress were defined by patients with creatinine level [Formula: see text] 1.2 mg/dL. Furthermore, to investigate the multivariate dependence structure among the demographic characteristics, the admission values, the comorbidities and the severity of respiratory distress, the Bayesian Network analysis was applied. This analysis confirmed the influence of creatinine and CRP on the severity of respiratory distress.

Acute Kidney Injury at Hospital Admission for SARS-CoV-2 Infection as a Marker of Poor Prognosis: Clinical Implications for Triage Risk Stratification.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes a wide spectrum of effects, including acute kidney injury (AKI) in up to 40% of hospitalized patients. Given the established relationship between AKI and poor prognosis, whether AKI might be a prognostic indicator for patients admitted to the hospital for SARS-CoV-2 infection would allow for a straightforward risk stratification of these patients. METHODS: We analyzed data of 623 patients admitted to San Raffaele Hospital (Milan, IT) between February 25 and April 19, 2020, for laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Incidence of AKI at hospital admission was calculated, with AKI defined according to the KDIGO criteria. Multivariable Cox regression models assessed the association between AKI and overall mortality and admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). RESULTS: Overall, 108 (17%) patients had AKI at hospital admission for SARS-CoV-2 infection. After a median follow-up for survivors of 14 days (interquartile range: 8, 23), 123 patients died, while 84 patients were admitted to the ICU. After adjusting for confounders, patients who had AKI at hospital admission were at increased risk of overall mortality compared to those who did not have AKI (hazards ratio [HR]: 2.00; p = 0.0004), whereas we did not find evidence of an association between AKI and ICU admission (HR: 0.95; p = 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that AKI might be an indicator of poor prognosis for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and as such, given its readily availability, it might be used to improve risk stratification at hospital admission.

Physical and psychological sequelae at three months after acute illness in COVID-19 survivors.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may leave behind an altered health status early after recovery. We evaluated the clinical status of COVID-19 survivors at three months after hospital discharge. METHODS: In this prospective observational cohort study, hospitalized patients aged ≥18 years, evaluated at one (M1) and three (M3) months post-discharge were enrolled. 251 patients (71.3% males, median [IQR] age 61.8 [53.5-70.7] years) were included. Median (IQR) time from discharge to M3 was 89 (79.5-101) days. Primary outcome was residual respiratory dysfunction (RRD), defined by tachypnea, moderate to very severe dyspnea, or peripheral oxygen saturation ≤95% on room air at M3. RESULTS: RRD was found in 30.4% of patients, with no significant difference compared with M1. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and length of stay were independent predictors of RRD at multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio, OR, [95% confidence interval, CI] 4.13 [1.17-16.88], p 0.033; OR [95% CI] 1.02 [1.00-1.04], p 0.047, respectively). Obesity and C-reactive protein levels upon admission were additional predictors at regression tree analysis. Impaired quality of life (QoL) was reported by 53.2% of patients. Anxiety and insomnia were each present in 25.5% of patients, and PTSD in 22.4%. No difference was found between M1 and M3 in QoL, anxiety or PTSD. Insomnia decreased at M3. Current major psychiatric disorder as well as anxiety, insomnia and PSTD at M1 independently predicted PTSD at M3. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical damage may persist at three months after discharge in COVID-19 survivors. Post-recovery follow-up is an essential component of patient management.

Role of blood pressure dysregulation on kidney and mortality outcomes in COVID-19. Kidney, blood pressure and mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: In February 2020 the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection started spreading throughout Italy, hitting the Lombardy region very hard. Despite the high diffusion, only a subset of patients developed severe COVID-19: around 25% of them developed acute kidney injury (AKI) and one-third of them died. Elderly patients and patients with high comorbidities were identified as being at higher risk of severe COVID-19. METHODS: Our prospective observational cohort study includes 392 consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Milan (median age 67 years, 75% male). We evaluated the relationship between blood pressure at presentation, presence of AKI at Emergency Department admission and during hospitalization, and total in-hospital mortality (24%). RESULTS: Although 58% of our study patients reported a history of hypertension (HYP) (86% on treatment), 30% presented with low blood pressure levels. Only 5.5% were diagnosed with AKI on admission; 75% of hypertensive patients discontinued therapy during hospitalization (only 20% were on treatment at discharge). Gender and hypertension were strongly associated with AKI at admission (odds ratio 11). Blood pressure was inversely correlated with increased risk of AKI upon admission, regardless of the severity of respiratory distress. Age over 65, history of hypertension, and severity of respiratory distress were the main predictors of AKI, which developed in 34.7% of cases during hospitalization. AKI was associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Hypertension and low blood pressure at presentation were the main predictors of in-hospital mortality, together with age over 65, baseline pulmonary involvement, and severity of illness. CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for COVID-19, hypertension and low blood pressure at presentation are important risk factors for AKI and mortality. Early reduction of antihypertensive therapy may improve outcomes in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Residual clinical damage after COVID-19: A retrospective and prospective observational cohort study.

Data on residual clinical damage after Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. The aims of this study were to investigate whether COVID-19 leaves behind residual dysfunction, and identify patients who might benefit from post-discharge monitoring. All patients aged ≥18 years admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) for COVID-19, and evaluated at post-discharge follow-up between 7 April and 7 May, 2020, were enrolled. Primary outcome was need of follow-up, defined as the presence at follow-up of at least one among: respiratory rate (RR) >20 breaths/min, uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) requiring therapeutic change, moderate to very severe dyspnoea, malnutrition, or new-onset cognitive impairment, according to validated scores. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) served as secondary outcome. 185 patients were included. Median [interquartile range] time from hospital discharge to follow-up was 23 [20-29] days. 109 (58.9%) patients needed follow-up. At follow-up evaluation, 58 (31.3%) patients were dyspnoeic, 41 (22.2%) tachypnoeic, 10 (5.4%) malnourished, 106 (57.3%) at risk for malnutrition. Forty (21.6%) patients had uncontrolled BP requiring therapeutic change, and 47 (25.4%) new-onset cognitive impairment. PTSD was observed in 41 (22.2%) patients. At regression tree analysis, the ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) and body mass index (BMI) at ED presentation, and age emerged as independent predictors of the need of follow-up. Patients with PaO2/FiO2 <324 and BMI ≥33 Kg/m2 had the highest odds to require follow-up. Among hospitalised patients, age ≥63 years, or age <63 plus non-invasive ventilation or diabetes identified those with the highest probability to need follow-up. PTSD was independently predicted by female gender and hospitalisation, the latter being protective (odds ratio, OR, 4.03, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.76 to 9.47, p 0.0011; OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.92, p 0.033, respectively). COVID-19 leaves behind physical and psychological dysfunctions. Follow-up programmes should be implemented for selected patients.

Post-COVID-19 follow-up clinic: depicting chronicity of a new disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE WORK: The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) outbreak is posing considerable challenges to healthcare systems and societies worldwide. While the knowledge on the acute phase of the disease has rapidly expanded, little is known on the consequences of COVID-19 following clinical remission. We set up a multidisciplinary COVID-19 follow-up outpatient clinic to identify and address the clinical needs of COVID-19 survivors. Here we describe the features of our follow-up programme. METHODS: The multidisciplinary assessment comprises a complete physical examination, respiratory evaluation (peripheral oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, dyspnoea assessment, lung ultrasound and pulmonary function), cardiovascular assessment (electrocardiography, echocardiography), nutritional assessment (anthropometrics, mini Nutritional Assessment screening tool), neurological examination including cognitive tests, and mental health assessment. All data are prospectively collected, and blood is sampled for biobanking. RESULTS: Since 7 April to 5 June, 2020, 453 out of the 1388 COVID-19 survivors managed at our University Hospital have been evaluated at the Outpatient COVID-19 Follow-up Clinic. The characteristics of the follow-up cohort are similar to those of the whole cohort of COVID-19 in terms of demographics, comorbidities, and COVID-19 severity upon ED presentation, indicating that the follow-up cohort is representative of the whole cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous patient monitoring might give an answer to the numerous unsolved questions about what comes next in this pandemic and beyond. This will help physicians and researchers establish strategies to face future pandemics and develop preventative and therapeutic strategies for similar hyperinflammatory conditions.